Liveblogging David Kirby’s NYU Law Talk

Welcome, everyone, to NYU Law’s scenic Tishman Auditorium. Kirby’s introduced by Mary Holland, one of our great lawyering program professors. Before going any further, I’d like to emphasize how great this law school is. Holland is part of one of the more unique programs at the law school, one of the programs that really makes the school stand out (come to NYU Law, kids, seriously). Anyways, Professor Holland studies the legal controversy, and follows Kirby to stay up-to-date.

Note – his slides are on his website. iPhonePhotoBlogging doesn’t make for good pictures. My rough transcript is below. I’ll post after the lecture with comments for some go-to moments. For now, I’ll just say “6:57.” I’d also appreciate it if some awesome people with scientific knowledge could take my journalism and turn it into commentary.

6:43 – News for the moment is that Kirby’s book, “Evidence of Harm,” may become an HBO movie. Kirby says it’s not happening yet; it’s with the HBO producers. Kirby says he’s pro-vaccine. AND, emphasizes that children must be vaccinated. Especially in New York, New York. Heyyyy…. Anyways, he wants us to know that he’s not anti-vaccine. He wants to reform a bad system. And, he’s not a scientist. He’s a journalist. He’s here to present the evidence. Good distinction, but if I were more suspicious, I’d be thinking about “teach the controversy.”

6:46 – He’s not rich. He wishes he’d gone to law school.

6:48 – Says Kirby, there are many causes of autism, and many autisms. He points out the difference between epidemiologists (their evidence doesn’t point out a link), and clinicians. Clinicians who work with the kids who got sick, he says, are the ones who come to believe in, and present, a link. We’re going through, first, the different potential causes of autism, and notes that there are questions of causation (which came first) in the case of some cause.

6:55 – There are some types of autism that are genetic, and have been with us “throughout human history.” It’s clear he thinks that most autism is caused by environmental symptoms, and mentions that mercury has been used for a long time.

6:57 – Wow. Word-for-word: “Gay people don’t like to hear that they are sick…. they feel that they’re just different. I know a lot of adults with autism that feel that way. I question whether their autism is the very same disorder as the kids I write about in my book.” Homosexuality is like autism? Setting aside possible bigotry at work, he thinks that environmental autism is worse, and thinks that genetic autism (particularly Asperger’s) ain’t so bad.

6:59 – He thinks people disproportionately blame Thimerosal/Thiomersal, even him. But he thinks that there may be other culprits: pesticides, jet fuels, even wireless technology (!). Any combination of these things, along with genetic triggers, “could perhaps produce what we call autism.”

7:01 – Now we come to the point. Is autism on the rise? He thinks that the reason for the increase is pretty much anything you could name, including better diagnosis/reporting. If autism were purely genetic, he says, the rates should be stable at 1/150 people (minus reporting problems). While reporting rates have gone up, it’s partly because in 1980 studies only counted “full-blown” autism cases (3/10,000). Rates are leveling out apparently. In 2006 it was 60/10,000 kids, but in 2008 it was 66/10,000. European rates have gone up to meet our levels, but the UK now has a reported rate of 120/10,000 (far higher than the US).

7:05 – Denmark comes up. Their rate is low – 7.2/10,000 – and they pulled mercury from vaccines in 1992. The point is glossed over, but apparently it’ll come up later.

7:07 – Apparently “full-blown” autism has gone up – from 3/10,000 to maybe 40/10,000, which suggests that it’s not just improvements in diagnosis technology. He plugs the “Pediatrics” study, from the Institute of Medicine and the American Academy of Pediatrics, as proving that there is an environmental role, at least in triggering some genes. “We have polluted our world, our food supply, our water supply, our air supply.” Reminiscent of vaccine + wonky genes = autism.

7:11 – We’ve moved on to debunking the VSD study that allegedly disproves the vaccine/autism link. He says the CDC is hiding the data needed to evaluate the claims. Apparently Round 1 proved a statistically significant increase in autism (9% – over the 2% needed to prove causation at law), but Round 2 was polluted by kids who were too young to get an autism diagnosis. He’s not saying the CDC did it deliberately – which gets snickers (?) – but that the final version disclaimed any link, which was present in Rounds 1-4. He says he wasn’t meant to see the Round 1 data, but FOIA works wonders.

7:14 – Denmark slide comes up, where autism went up after Thimerosal was pulled. He says some people therefore claimed that mercury had a neuroprotective effect – more snickers! As our earlier friend reported, he disclaims the data, saying that better reporting/diagnosis is to blame, and therefore it doesn’t disprove the link. He blames immigration, mercury-laden fish, and dirty fjords for the continued high diagnosis rate in Denmark. Autism is now decreasing in 2000 and 2001, though.

7:17 – He thinks people are trying to hide the decreasing autism rate in Denmark, because it proves that mercury was the culprit. He blames FOIA for the difficulty he had in getting the 2001 numbers: “there wasn’t some bureaucrat with a black sharpie redacting [e-mails].”

7:18 – He thinks the reason people discount the vaccine/autism link is a bias for epidemiological data over biological data. And, he blames the CDC for bad handling of the VSD data. “Any eighth grader knows that you make your science available to other people.” An IOM panel said that CDC vaccine officials should “seek legal advice” about their bad handling of the data.

7:21 – We’re critiquing the VSD study for failing to account for various factors. But it wasn’t as bad as Denmark. Apparently a letter sent this year to the House Appropriations Committee, signed by Julie Gerberding (head of CDC), disclaims the VSD data. The CDC concurs, especially that the data are bad as an ecological study (they don’t reflect background mercury).

7:28 – He says the Cochrane 2006 Review disproves some more epidemiological studies. He’s going very fast, and brushes past some studies that may disprove the mercury link. We’re already past these apparently flawed studies without explanation of why they’re flawed.

7:29 – Mercury in vaccines has risen from 75 mcg to 237.5 mcg. He shows a slide with an “ecological association,” demonstrating that the mercury in vaccines in California moved in lockstep with autism rates. He talks down this slide, oddly enough.

7:31 – Emotional reactions for fun & profit: he shows a slide with a picture of Thimerosal, and it has a skull & crossbones on it. Chelation therapy shows that a kid with ASD excreted a lot of mercury. This isn’t the slide we were warned about, though. Apparently kids with autism have a glutathione deficiency – they can’t detoxify mercury themselves. Does that suggest that the autistic kids are just inherently bad at handling mercury?

7:34 – “Scariest slide of the night” demonstrates that mercury may meddle with some important methylation processes, decreasing glutathione, decreasing mercury detoxification, and meddling with the ability to retain memory.

7:36 – “Nothing is proof of anything,” but he says he’s relying upon good, peer-reviewed, high-tier journal science. Apparently there’s inorganic mercury, and organic mercury. Vaccine mercury is organic, but manufactured; Thomas Bubacher exposed monkeys to it. The organic (methyl) mercury stayed in the blood longer, but vaccine mercury transformed to inorganic mercury in the brain very quickly. Autopsies of autistic people suggests inflammation associated with activation of the brain’s immune system, comparable to the monkeys Bubacher studied.

7:40 – School districts in Texas, closer to coal-fired power plants, had higher autism rate. Similarly, kids born in the polluted parts of the Bay Area in San Francisco have a higher autism rate. The highest-risk compounds in both were mercury “and other compounds.” Another Texas study showed that for every 1,000 pounds of mercury in the air, there was a 3.7% incrase in autism. Fell 1-2% every ten miles from the source.

7:42 – Bad news: mercury in the ocean comes from coal plants in China (a new one built every day), and the mercury comes over to the United States through the “Shanghai Plume” in the ocean. Mercury rates are higher than normal, from the plume, around the west coast, and there is evidence to suggest that this “background mercury” is linked to atusim.

7:44 – “Aluminum is not your friend.” It’s also in vaccines, says he. It attacks mitochondria.

7:44 – We’re on Hannah Poling. Developed normally at 9 months, and one year. At some point thereafter she received vaccines (July 19, 2000). “Oh,” “ah,” from the room. Within days she had a fever of 102.3 and lost response to stimuli. By December, speech delay, and losing language, and by February diagnosed with autism. By 2004, Hannah has a “single point mutation” in her mitochondria, which her mother also has. Kirby discounts this as a cause of her autism (genetic); it’s a benign mutation. Of course it’s benign, but isn’t the point that it’s a rare mutation, which caused Hannah to react poorly? That means mercury is bad for some, not all.

7:48 – We’re on the “Vaccine Court” discussion on Hannah Poling. Kirby notes that there’s no trial in vaccine court. The “Poling concession” admits that vaccines triggered Hannah’s autism. But, it was a vaccine-induced exacerbation, as Kirby says… not something that happens to the general populace.

7:50 – Dr. Gerberding admits that mercury precipitated the reaction. She now admits that, if the kid has mitochondrial dysfunction, vaccines will cause autism. Yes…. but that proves vaccines cause autism in kids with mitochondrial dysfunction…. not that vaccines cause autism in everyone.

7:53 – Kirby thinks that mitochyondrial dysfunction could be acquired. People are now tying mitochondrial dysfunction to mercury ingestion, and decreases in glutathione. Mild mitochondrial dysfunction is now found in the early records of most autistic children.

7:59 – Thimerosal, he says, is proven to attack mitochondria. Thimerosal expands pores on mitochondria, apparently, allowing cells that kill nerve cells to escape. Dr. Herbert suggests that an early “environmental, infectious, seizure, or autoimmune insult triggers an immune result,” which leads to stress and brain swelling, reduction of glutathione, and mitochondrial dysfunction leading to autism. Formaldehyde does the same thing. Chelators can reduce the damage. “No-one is saying that this means that vaccines cause autism, but it’s interesting science.” Isn’t he saying that?

8:03 – CDC was asked to lie about formaldehyde in Hurricane Katrina FEMA trailers, and they did; if they’re asked to lie about that and they do, what won’t they lie about? Oh please. And formaldehyde is in vaccines.

8:04 – Hannah Poling was supposed to be a thimerosal test case; she was pulled. Her replacement has similar symptoms, though.

8:05 – Vaccine Court has payed out in 1,322 cases, roughly half between encephalitis/encephalopathy and seizure disorders. Many of them had autistic symptoms, but they weren’t compensated for autism, although the government did admit fault in vaccines causing brain damage. He thinks it’ll be big news if – “oh, by the way,” he says – those compensated children were also autistic. Apparently only 1/4 cases gets compensated; he thinks the 1,322 compensated represents tens of thousands who were unjustly denied compensation.

8:07 – The CDC is still working on autism and vaccine issues. It’s had a conference call with CISA, a group comprised of vaccine experts and insurance companies, who’re trying to work out how much of society has mitochondrial dysfunction. Kirby thinks it might be as high as 2% of the country.

8:09 – The question is whether the dysfunction requires a trigger. Of 30 cases, only 2 were “triggered” by vaccines; 28 were “triggered” by just random fevers. He thinks it’s a three-step, two-trigger process leading to developmental regression.

8:11 – If fevers are a trigger, should the kids get vaccinated earlier, if maybe not with nine vaccines at once? The government is trying to figure it out.

8:14 – It’s big news that fevers can cause autism. Regardless of the vaccine debate.

8:15 – CNN is giving ideas about what to do to allay your fears about vaccination, or maybe minimize the risk (delay the first hepatitis shot, etc.).

8:16 – Hillary Clinton was interested in investigating the question of whether vaccines cause autism. Obama agrees that autism is epidemic; he says the science is inconclusive. McCain thinks there’s “strong evidence” that vaccines cause autism. The next president, Kirby says, is on his side.

8:17 – Ugh. Quotes from Dr. Bernadine Healy – “Never turn your back on any scientific hypothesis because you are afraid of what it might show.” Kirby thinks we need to focus on small population studies – “susceptibility groups.” On Don Imus’ show, Healy said, “the issue is really almost one of ideology or religion, more than it is of science. It is the sense that vaccines are critically important.” Again with the “science is a religion” talking point.

8:20 – “We need to look at the kids,” and study their brains. “What have we done to our modern world. What is in our water, our air, our food, and yes, our medicine?”

8:21 – We’re talking about “Will,” a kid who had autism and is now better, “because his parents fought for him, and were willing to try some of these experimental therapies.” “It’s not going to work for everybody.” I assume he’s talking about chelation therapy.

——

Question & Answer Time (a film crew is watching…)

• Expectant mother asks, what vaccines should I give my kid, and how do I know if they have the mitochondrial dysfunction? Kirby says, it may be acquired, and we don’t have at-birth tests. “I would not be afraid of vaccinating your child. I really do think it’s important.”
• Father of twins, who told his doctor to give the kid only one vaccine at a time, had the kids vaccinated with one five-vaccine cocktail from Glaxosmith Kline (Pediarix). One of the kids, a vibrant child, became mute almost immediately. Kid’s fine now. Question: what motivated the physician to give us Pediarix? Father thinks it’s economics: Pediarix is expensive and can be billed out at high-dollar value, “money talks.” Kirby points out that the CDC has pulled four-vaccine cocktails, and doesn’t think it’s money – doctors get paid more for multiple vaccinations. He thinks it’s just convenience that backfired.
• Can aspertane cause autism? Am I safe drinking Diet Coke? Oh, Kirby said aspartate, not aspertane. Hilarity ensues. BUT, another guest indicates, aspertane is bad, and MSG is too. Gulf War soldiers who were vaccinated, given aspertane-laced Diet Coke (heated), and MREs with MSG, were poisoned sometimes and at risk for Lou Gehgrig’s disease.
• Father has two kids with autism. Daughter is mostly recovered; son has a rare autoimmune disorder, and he’s not great still. Son’s head started to swell ridiculously. Brother-in-law’s child had the same thing, had to have skull surgery twice to reduce swelling. Question: does success in behavioral realm beget success in the autoimmune realm? Or vice versa? Unclear.
• Woman thanks Kirby. Yay. Everyone applauds. She’s the mother of “two vaccine-injured children.” They’re 100% recovered. She lectures on vaccines. Woman says, “Sometimes it’s your training that gets in the way of opening your mind to see the truth.” That gets a “hear, hear!” Why aren’t the scientists covering this? Kirby says, apparently in Niger, people don’t have peanut allergies. He blames vaccines… again, because vaccines have peanut oil in them. Woman’s livid that the room isn’t packed. There are a lot of people here… Kirby injects, vaccines may lead to asthma as well.
• Woman has kids who aren’t vaccinated, and she won’t vaccinate them. PEOPLE APPLAUD. In Amish Country, there are no autistic kids, apparently, I didn’t catch the name of the journalist who she cited. Vaccination isn’t mandatory, she wants the new mother to know: take the philosophical or religious exception. “It’s against your civil rights” to be forced to have your kids vaccinated. She points you to http://www.thinktwice.com and http://www.mercola.com
• Woman points out that there’s a lot of mental illness on the rise. China’s in trouble. Not a huge shock. Kirby agrees.
• Woman says another friend of hers had a kick hit with four vaccines at once, despite her objections. She protests how vigilant she has to be. Parents need to be educated. Apparently the rates of autism in the Middle East are similar to the United States. Can the universal component be the pharmaceutical industry, she asks? Kirby says thanks, bye.
• Woman had a child with an autism diagnosis. She exhorts parents to be vigilant. Child got two flu shots, “sucked the life out” of him. There is hope, and that hope is chelation. Also, her unvaccinated child has a superhuman IQ. “Newborns work off their mothers’ immunities for the first six months” – why vaccinate so young, she asks?
• Woman can’t believe that people are so unwilling to think the CDC lies. The CDC kept AIDS in blood transfusions under wraps. She wants to see if children can be evaluated, to see if they’re predisposed to autism. Some genetic markers may help, but apparently the science isn’t there yet.
• Man is surprised that the question of how much the environmental factor plays in keeps coming up. He thinks it’s been proven. He also thinks the CDC will be better when the Obama administration comes in (editorializing mine).
• Kirby says his critics don’t want to come out in person. I’m pissed off, but I’ve told myself I’m here just to write, not to talk. Heisenberg and all that. Plus, given the audience, I might be murdered. But he’s annoying me now.
• Man says he’s a skeptic, but is becoming convinced. He thinks autism is either a gradient, or different diseases. Kirby agrees. Kirby and speaker also agree that another theory of evils of vaccines might be that thimerosal weakens the system, allowing the live virus to run rampant.
• Woman points out that people are making vaccines for peanut allergies; isn’t that funny, if the vaccine causes peanut allergies? Haha. She also points out that Tylenol might make vaccine damage worse.

Kids, I’m sorry to say that my battery is dying. I’ll have to cut out; 9:08 PM.

Post shutdown update: after I closed the laptop, but before I left, a woman stood up and asked Kirby about recommended treatments for autism. Chelation therapy came up. Kirby said, essentially, that’s fine, but it hasn’t been tested really. We need some double-blind tests.

What ensued after turned a garden-variety question into a veritable showcase of ignorance.

The woman, essentially, replied that she wouldn’t have her son taking a placebo. What mother, she asked, would consent to her child being given a placebo? The room murmured its agreement!! What the hell! Kirby to his credit insisted, “look, double-blind studies may not be ethical, in that some kids don’t get helped, but that’s the way science is done!” The mother objected again! And the room agreed with the mother! Disgusted, hungry, and with a dead laptop, I left.