Picking Pawlenty: the Problem of a Palatable Republican

A week or so ago, I was justifiably mocked for not including Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty in my list of McCain’s potential VP picks.  My excuse – namely, I didn’t know he existed – was not, shall we say, up to par.  Oops.  In my defense, I plead “busy at work,” and I promise that that’ll be the last (obvious) gap in my coverage.

I’ve since read up on this Pawlenty character, and I’d like to make up for my previous deficiency by adding, retroactively, what I think Pawlenty would say about McCain’s campaign to that previous long list:

• Tim Pawlenty (Gov-MN): “Back to basics.” I like to measure a politician’s trustworthiness – or lack thereof – with a new metric, the “Romney.”  A politician’s Romney score is a measure of the degree to which spin, style, and expedience dominate over substance.  It’s not a function of the politician’s experience so much as their seriousness.  An empty suit scores high on the Romney scale.  For example, Mitt Romney, remarkably, weighs in at 50 kilo-Romneys (the scale had to be calibrated for normal politicians, Romney himself being an outlier).  From everything I read, Pawlently looks likely to weigh in on the shy side of the scale – maybe 1 or fewer Romneys.  He’s done spectacular things with budgets while still caring about his opponents, even socializing with them.  Even in his criticism of Obama, he’s fairly moderate, taking the “no experience” tack, with a respecful air of deference to the Senator’s impassioned oratory.  In short, Pawlenty is everything McCain used to be.  Should McCain pick him, he’ll be sending a strong message that he wants to return to those roots, despite the relatively nasty and mendacious path his campaign has taken lately.  One could say – in fact, I think I will – that if the choice of McCain’s running mate comes down to Romney or Pawlenty, it’ll be nothing less than a battle for McCain’s soul.

I have concerns with Pawlenty, though.  Namely, his use of the “inexperienced” mantra rings a little bit hollow: he’s the same age as Obama, and his experience (ten years in the state legislature, six as governor) is certainly more than Obama’s, but it’s not a ton, and it won’t stack up against, say, likely Obama VP Evan Bayh.  Also, Pawlenty has definite presidential aspirations: his wife calls him “45,” a thinly veiled referEditence to the future 45th President (Obama or McCain will be the 44th President).  That makes him a good pick for McCain, and for the future of the Republican Party, but a bad pick for Democrats.

And, finally, like almost all Republicans these days, Pawlenty seems pleased to pull out the “abortion” and “gay” cards to manipulate public opinion when it suits him.  Although I’m wary of the source, Pawlently’s changed his opinion on both gay rights and abortion to strategically emphasize the conservative position when it’s required of him.

Picking Pawlenty, then, would be the right move for the McCain campaign, and would hopefully signal a departure from the negative campaigning of the last two weeks.  But it would set the Democrats up dangerously in 2012/6 if the unthinkable happens and McCain wins, and would not signify a departure from the Republicans’ willingness to play religious voters for all they’re worth.