Archive for October 5, 2008

I’ve Seen This Movie Before…

Tell me if you have. A Republican presidential candidate, running on failed policies with a promise of more of the same, astonishingly finds himself lagging significantly at the polls. With the Republican case growing increasingly desperate, the campaign has two options: the hard way, adapting policies to meet the needs of a changing electorate, or the easy way, calling their opponent an America-hating un-Christian terrorist liberal. Guess which plan the Republicans chose.

Two roads diverged in a forest and the Republicans – well, they took the one most traveled by. Ah yes. In case you hadn’t heard, in a classic redefinition of “country first,” John McCain and his running mate Sarah Palin yesterday opted to go on the offensive. The very, very offensive. Palin drew first blood yesterday, calling Barack Obama a terrorist, and promising more to come. Gentlemen Republicans, start your swiftboats.

As McCain tries to trade more and more of his honor away for a few points in the polls (everything must go!!), it’s certain that the Republicans are trying to write a sequel to John Kerry’s massacre in 2004. While there can be no doubt that we’ve seen this movie before, though, there’s every reason to think that the ending will be a little different. Expect McCain’s negative tack to either backfire, or be wholly ineffective.

Negative campaigning is all about capturing the narrative surrounding your opponent, and defining him against voter’s interests. Especially in this election cycle, McCain’s ability to capture Obama’s narrative is extremely doubtful. As a friend pointed out to me, Initial media response to McCain’s turn to the dark side has focused on the fact of his negative campaigning, rather than the substance of the allegations: “look, McCain is going negative,” rather than, “McCain Points Out that Obama is a Terrorist.” Aside from muting the effectiveness of the underlying assaults, this refocuses the negative campaign on McCain, where the Republican now runs the risk of reinforcing the public’s increasingly negative perception of his character (recall viewer reactions to McCain’s lecturing debate style). As McCain continues to go on the offensive, and the media continues to note the fact of the attack rather than its allegations, Kerry’s indictment of McCain’s character in Denver -

I have known and been friends with John McCain for almost 22 years. But every day now I learn something new about candidate McCain. To those who still believe in the myth of a maverick instead of the reality of a politician, I say, let’s compare Senator McCain to candidate McCain.

- starts to sound more credible. Negative campaigning is always risky; but, owing to McCain’s tarnished public image, turning negative is a calculated risk that he can’t afford to take… unless he has nothing less to lose.

Perhaps more importantly, though, negative campaigning is most effective against politicians whose image self-definition is largely incomplete. Hence the effectiveness of “Swiftboat Veterans for Truth” against John Kerry in 2004: Kerry had largely campaigned as “anyone but Bush,” lacked a definite individual personality, and the Republicans had successfully co-opted his image early in the campaign. Obama’s own run is blissfully distinguishable. Obama’s image stands on its own two feet, and the candidate successfully beat his opponents to the task of defining himself. The Republicans can spin their wheels trying to label Obama as an “east-coast liberal,” etc., but it’s not as effective when Obama has spent months painting himself as a moderate. Further, the nastiest attacks on Obama have already seen the light of day (thanks Hillary!). In politics, timing matters: this might’ve had an impact months ago. But, since the allegations aren’t new, and because they cut against an established political image, they won’t have as much of an effect as McCain would hope.

And, of course, there’s reason to expect that voters will be immune to this sort of attack this time around. Voters this time around have to split their attention between a smear campaign and the nation’s well-being, as the economic markets crumble around them. Guess which one they’ll pay attention to? Hint: McCain’s sliding poll numbers may provide a clue.

Conservapedia Fails at Law (Again): Berg’s Suit Against Obama Not Yet Ruled Upon

Citing an online filing as proof, Conservapedia today claimed that far-right nutjob Philip J. Berg’s lawsuit to kick Barack Obama off the ballot would proceed, despite Senator Obama’s motion to dismiss. The problem? It’s a rumor, debunked by Berg himself. Filings in federal court typically include “draft orders,” provided by parties for the judge to sign when ruling on a matter, so that the judge doesn’t have to draft orders themselves. Conservapedia’s sysops mistook an unsigned draft for an executed order. Legal comprehension fail. [bpsdb]