Archive for April 1, 2009

NY District 20: So Much More Than a Dairy Queen and an Election

I live in NY District 22, right next to NY-20, which stretches north of us in this really funky shape that screams gerrymandering, but (with a population that is almost 94% white) is really the result of trying to group enough small populations together to justify a district. This far upstate, the Republican Party rules. In 2008, Obama won New York state by a margin of nearly 26 points, but among the four entire counties that make up NY-20, Obama only received an average of 49% of the vote. NY-20 is also made up of parts of six other counties, and among these, Obama fared only slightly better with an average 52% of the vote. Overall, Obama carried the district by 51%. (He carried NY-22, my district, by 59%. A 2007 black and Latino population of 10.5% likely fueled the larger margin of victory in NY-22. Blacks and Latinos only make up 5.4% of NY-20′s population.)

Nonetheless, as Nate Silver points out, NY-20′s PVI indicates any congressional election (based on 2006 and 2008 election results) should be a toss up, even with the district’s historical Republican bent.

O.K. Fine, but remember it was the GOP, specifically the RNC, who chose to make NY-20′s special election evidence of the Republican Party’s resurrection. The party picked a well known candidate. Jim Tedisco has been the state-assembly representative for the state’s 110th district since 1983. The 110th district rests almost entirely in NY-20. (A lot of grumbling circled around Tedisco not being a resident of NY-20, but he is a resident of the 110th state district and lives adjacent to NY-20, where his wife owns a home.) The RNC diverted $200,000 to the Tedisco campaign, while the DNC spent only $20,000 in support of Tedisco’s opponent, Scott Murphy. The NRCC spent $818,000 on the special election; by comparison, its Democratic counterpart (DCCC) spent a measely $574,000. According to the NYT, Murphy raised and spent much more money than Tedisco on his campaign, but the striking difference in financial support from the two parties’ leaderships indicates the Republican Party was very interested in recapturing their longtime stronghold.

“Republican stronghold” is no exaggeration. Until Obama, a Democratic presidential candidate did not win a majority in the most populous county in NY-20 (Saratoga County) since 1964 [UPDATED FROM ORIGINAL VERSION TO CLARIFY AND CORRECT]. Further, until Kirsten Gillibrand upset John Sweeney in the 2006 election, NY-20 has elected a Republican to the House since 1982. John Sweeney represented the district from 1999 through 2006. In 2004, Sweeney was reelected with 66% of the vote in spite of several controversies regarding his association with Jack Abramoff, his use of his wife as a paid fund raiser, and a wee automobile accident he had allegedly under the influence. In 2006, after a drunken appearance at a fraternity party, an ethics problem with a ski trip billed as official business, suspect dealings with lobbyists, and a domestic-violence incident, Sweeney was ousted from office garnering only 46% of the vote.

OF COURSE! There are data after the jump.

Continue reading »

Spinning the Unspinnable in NY-20

Sometime last week, we started hearing stories of how last night’s special election for the House of Representatives (NY-20) would surely, one way or another, define Obama’s first 100 days. Either the Democrat (Murphy) would win, and Obama’s financial policies would be vindicated, or the Republican (Tedisco) would win, which would somehow amount to a resounding rejection of everything Obama.

Neither was realistic. NY-20 was solid red until 2006, and Republicans still enjoy a registration edge; the idea that the Democrats have to hold it to keep the party’s post-’08 momentum is farcical. Similarly, while the GOP will have to start re-winning formerly lost seats sometime soon, to demand such a speedy turnaround of Steele, the GOP, or anyone is ridiculous. Political junkies can choose to attach such meaning to minor swing events, but sometimes an election is just an election. Bottom line, the media wanted a story, and tried desperately to build NY-20 into one.

So I call it poetic justice that the night ended with Murphy (D) up by sixty votes, i.e., too close to call, pending the counting of absentee/service ballots over the next two weeks.

This is not a spinnable outcome. It’s a lesson against reading too much in to a race that’s too evenly split to be interesting.