Election 2008

Kristol to Republicans: I’m Certainly Not the Problem

Bill said what?!

It must be nice to be William Kristol, to be able to live in a world of delusion and denial without repercussion and to build a celebrity career on a fantastic self-perception of perfection. Get it people: Kristol is infallible.

His column in the New York Times yesterday, on first skim, seems reasonable enough. The Republican Party is in trouble. Its economic message in mired in historical failure (Hoover’s mismanagement of depression economics), and the very loud constituency that defends the sanctity of free-market and supply-side economics is not helping matters. If the Republicans are going to regain power, something must be done about the Party’s economic platform.

Fair enough, but note this little pearl:

A hawkish foreign policy, social conservatism and middle-American populism aren’t the problems. Those elements, as embodied on the Republican ticket by John McCain and Sarah Palin, produced a respectable 46 percent of the national vote …

Essentially, social conservatism and neocon foreign policy, the latter being Kristol’s birthright, are the only factors keeping the Republican Party afloat. It’s the supply siders who ruined everything! With the stroke of the keyboard, Kristol easily absolves himself of any responsibility, as a leading conservative intellectual, for the failure of his party. His pronouncement reflects an easy presumptuousness akin to Sarah Palin’s in declaring herself innocent before release of the Branchflower Report.

Reality check: The problem with the Republican Party is bigger than the sum of Kristol’s “big three” components: supply siders, neocons, and social conservatives. The bigger whole is a deep-seated rigidity and self-righteousness that prevent quick adaptation and reasoned, inclusive debate within the party. I have long marveled at the Republican Party’s ability to circle the wagons to great success in national elections, but the 2008 election showed some serious weaknesses in this favorite Republican strategy. The Party had failed to coalesce voices of dissent in framing its platform, but it remained ever-rigid and ever convinced of its own mandate to protect the “real America.” It was a hollow sell, and showed the Party’s inability to handle very real crises.

The denial and delusion borne out of such self-righteousness is front and center in Kristol’s column: It’s not me; it’s everyone else! But what does Kristol care? As he told John Stewart on October 30: “If you’re a liberal, you should be for Obama; if you are a conservative, you should be for McCain. It’s not a psychodrama. It’s just an election” (4:50).

Martin Gets Celebrity Help

Good news: Jim Martin is happily coasting on Obama’s coattails, and appropriating tried and true Obama campaign tactics. Perhaps more importantly – Bill Clinton will campaign for Martin. Recall, runoffs are low-turnout elections dependent on enthusiasm. If the mere mention of Obama, and strategic stumping by Clinton, are sufficient to whip Georgia Democrats into a frenzy, then the race is ours. Memo to all Obama campaign volunteers: get out the vote for Martin. Sketch in time in early December to make calls from his site.

No, It’s Not a Rorschach; It’s Your Country

Yep, it looks like splats of tempera paint on the floor of a third-grade classroom, but this picture actually shows 2008 presidential election results in the “lower 48,” courtesy of three researchers at the University of Michigan. The map is actually a cartogram, where states, more specifically counties, are reshaped according to population density and colored based on total votes.

The electoral maps we are glued to during election night are colored in a win/lose manner. A state is either blue or red, when actually, much of the country (especially the large middle swath, long considered a Republican stronghold) is quite evenly divided. We’re some shade of purple … blue-purple if we are leaning left, red-purple if we are leaning right. What is notable is how small the areas are that are dramatically red. Much more of the map is blue or very near-blue. Considering Obama’s mandate-size win by over eight million votes, more blue on the map makes sense.

Also interesting is how little the general voting pattern has changed since 2004 (see below). Essentially, the country is just as purple in 2008 as it was then, the difference is between the percentage of blue or red in the purple. Unfortunately, we don’t have a cartogram representing 2000 presidential results, but since Gore won the popular vote by over 500,000 votes, I think we can expect to see the same overall pattern.

So what about the Republican/conservative assertion that the country is really center-right? Looking at these maps, I think it is clear that the country is actually center-left, given the relative size of areas that are on the blue-purple end of the red-to-blue spectrum.

Cartogram: 2004 Presidential Election Popular Vote

Cartogram: 2008 Presidential Election Popular Vote

Writing History for the Winners

While it’s true that campaign strategies are uniformly judged only in retrospect, more than the usual airtime is being spent singing the praises of Obama’s campaign team. In Monday’s Fresh Air, NPR’s team recaps the greatest pivot points of Obama’s presidential career (hint: debating Hillary on unilateral meetings, and the “Celebrity” ad), and suggests that, as the candidate had wished, he has emerged from the election “intact.” McCain, on the other hand…

Oh, Howard, My Vote Was for Obama, but My Heart Belongs to You

I never say "no" to a photo with cows

Yesterday, Howard Dean announced he will not seek a second term as chairman of the Democratic National Committee. The thought of his leaving after taking charge almost four years ago makes me feel like Luke Skywalker looking on as Obi-Wan allows Darth Vader to strike him down. Dean must go, must move on; his work is done. It is now time for the millions upon millions of Skywalkers to use his wisdom and guidance to continue to realize our collective destiny as true forces for change.

There was a time, indeed, when I thought, “Help us, Howard, you’re our only hope!”

It really did seem during the 2004 primary season that Dean was the one bright spot on the Democratic Party’s horizon. His supporters were massive in numbers and in passion. I remember wondering who this new force was, discussing with my fellow grad students the energy his completely from-the-ground-up campaign was generating. My gut told me there was no way he would win the nomination — too pared down, too pedestrian — and this was before the infamous scream. But if Dean was unelectable because he was too accessible; John Kerry was unelectable because he was too removed. An amalgam of the two’s strengths — grit, intellect, political savvy, down-to-earthiness — would have been a gift to the Democrats in 2004. Add a hefty amount of cool and impenetrability … enter President-Elect Obama in 2008.

It is no joke that Dean revolutionized campaigning back in 2004. The foresight he and his campaign exhibited in harnessing the Internet for fundraising and coalition building produced the protype the Obama campaign, with four more years of blog- and networking-site development at their disposal, was able to exploit with unimaginable success.

Dean also kept the DNC focused on building bases in all 50 states. It is easy to say the state of the economy won the election for Obama, but I don’t believe this is entirely true. Certainly, Democrats do better in elections when the economy is tanking, and certainly, Obama’s cool, consistent message and manner from the bailout negotiations through election day were major points in his favor. Nonetheless, convincing so many Americans that Obama was the better choice would have been incredibly difficult if not for the infrastructure Dean constructed since assuming control of the DNC. Did he piss off Rahm Emanuel and Charles Schumer during the 2006 mid-term elections? Who cares!

Sure an incoming administration puts its people in DNC leadership posts, but some speculate Dean’s departure is penance he must perform for neglecting 2006 congressional races. Others think it is because Dean needs to be in high-profile positions, and the DNC is rendered somewhat moot with a Democratic administration. And there is the contingent who believe Dean is being considered for Secretary of Health and Human Services. I like this last scenario best. Obama wants to expand health care coverage; Howard Dean has actually done it. This sort of practical experience, along with his get-sh*t-done-even-or-especially-if-it-means-getting-dirty leadership approach would make Dean a … oh, dare I say it? … maverick in HHS.

So long, Howard. Thank you.

Consolidate Gains: Shift Efforts to Jim Martin

Senator – and disgraceful human being – Saxby Chambliss led Democratic contender Jim Martin on election day in Georgia. But he failed to secure 50% of the vote, sending it to a runoff in December. Now, John McCain will campaign for Saxby Chambliss. Barack Obama should do the same, or at least cut an ad for him. Now that Obama has won the White House, Martin’s race is a matter of who the President-Elect would prefer to work with: Chambliss has vowed to oppose everything Obama does, and Martin is one of an emerging breed of “Obama Democrats.” Citizens, shift your donations & volunteering to Martin: volunteer to phone bank from home in late November, and urge Obama to help him out.

Political Expression in a Political Season

The mood here in Manhattan is still exuberant. Three days (and half of one night) ago, when McCain conceded and Obama delivered his historic speech, the street was alive with honking horns and hooting pedestrians. In large part, it hasn’t faded. As Jon Stewart said, strangers smile at each other (video below the jump). Obama buttons still adorn jackets, backpacks, and shirts. And on Wednesday, our black taxi driver told us how, in all his sixty-seven years, he never thought he’d see the day. Maybe, after a few years in office, President Obama will disappoint us: but for now, it’s time to celebrate.

It’s a far cry from Texas in 2004. Before the election, carrying yard signs and t-shirts to supporters, I endured the jeers of Bush’s many supporters. On the light rail, one father even told his energetic toddler son – loudly – how he shouldn’t wave at me. My Kerry button – he said – proved I was unstable and dangerous. Lovely. After the election, no-one talked about it.

It’s a dangerous business talking about politics. But the stories about the results are always entertaining. If you have some, please feel free to share them below:

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A Radiant Condoleeza Rice

No, this is not a joke. Nor is it an oxymoron (for once). I can think of plenty of “R” words to describe Rice … “repressed” … “righteous” … “rigid” … “reticent” … “wRong” … but yesterday, when she gave an impromptu statement congratulating President-Elect Obama and, really, America as a whole, Condoleeza Rice looked absolutely, positively, 100% radiant.

Salon’s Joan Walsh offers additional context on Rice, and here is the video of her statement. See if you don’t agree with me, and see if you don’t think these words too: ebullient and … sincere.

The Republic Restored

It’s morning in America. When all the dust is settled, Barack Obama will win the electoral college with more than three hundred and fifty votes, and the popular vote by almost seven million, a clear majority and a powerful mandate. In short, he’ll come close to repeating Bill Clinton’s legendary electoral routs, and secure a majority that Clinton never enjoyed (thanks to Ross Perot). This victory is decisive, and a ringing endorsement of Senator Obama’s message of unity and principled liberalism.

The question now is – what do we do with it? The short answer is, move cautiously forward. No victory is ever total, and especially when the stakes are so high, we can’t afford to rest on our laurels. History will decide whether Barack Obama becomes a Jimmy Carter or a Bill Clinton. There’s still a lot that you and I can do to make sure that a progressive victory becomes a progressive mainstream. So – Where do we go from here?

As a Majority Party

While Obama delivered our first electoral victory in 12 years, his victory emerges more from a confluence of historic events than from the fact that he’s an ideal candidate. In many ways, Barack Obama as a candidate was far from perfect. He lacked “executive experience,” had a liberal voting record, struggled to escape from conspiracy theories and rumors, and he wasn’t white. In any other year, he would have lost – or won by significantly less. Recall that just recently Obama polled below a “generic Democrat” in a matchup against John McCain. Why did we win?

Because the Republican brand is shattered. After eight years of a horrifically divisive administration, a failing war, a ruined economy, and facing only promises of more of the same, the Republican Party was simply not an option for more than the conservative mainline of America. Instead of reinventing itself with a transformative, universally respected candidate, the Republicans stuck to their guns and reentrenched themselves around his anti-intellectual, culture-war steeped running mate. The Republicans entered this race hopping on one leg; halfway to the finish line, they shot themselves in the remaining foot.

We cannot always count on the Republicans to so destroy themselves. Some of the advantages gained in this race – the perfection of the Bush ground game & its use for good, and the masterful use of modern technology to play to modern coalitions – will stick with us. We’ve learned our lesson, and we can do it again. But rarely do politicians face such a weak opponent. We can’t plan on that. Nor can we forget that our two central strengths in this election were a message of unity, and a powerful appeal to young voters, and black voters. Institutionalizing both messages within the Democratic Party will serve our party, and more importantly, our country.

As a Nation

Our party can best consolidate its gains by fulfilling its promise to change America for the better. On “soft” social issues, Barack Obama should continue his campaign’s message of principled liberalism, which set a premium on compromise and bipartisan consensus, to build support for a moderate, electorally validated right to choose, and support for gay rights by reframing the issue as one of compassion (a task he began in his acceptance speech). On “hard” issues – the economy, the war, rebuilding American hegemony – Obama will do well to lead in the example of Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Delano Roosevelt, by welcoming and accepting cross-party ideas and support. Surely he’s already taken the first steps there. Selecting Joe Biden proved that Obama really was interested in the idea of “a team of rivals.” If he meant what he said in his acceptance speech, it’s another step in the right direction.

Ultimately Barack Obama will be judged on results. He needs to get to work. He should tap his cabinet now, and start working now with Still-President Bush to affect a smooth transition. America can’t afford to wait a day. Nor can the people who propelled Obama to victory.

I spent election day working as an election observer in northwest Philadelphia. The neighborhood is majority black, and portions skirt the poverty line. While even pre-Obama this was overwhelmingly Democratic Country (one local handed out lists of the Democratic candidates just outside the door), turnout was incredibly high, and the enthusiasm for Barack Obama palpable. While voters talked about how their savings evaporated under Bush, grandfathers told their grandsons that, if they stay in school, they too can be like Barack Obama. Barack Obama won because of people like these. If he lets them down, history will justly judge him poorly.

Conclusion

Last night’s results give the Democratic Party a mandate for change, but they will also require the party itself to change to keep the mandate. We’ll need to become a consensus party, capable of compromise while retaining our core values. We’ll have to reframe key social questions as valence issues – “freedom is merely privilege extended, unless enjoyed by one and all.” And we’ll have to work. Hard. We’re all Americans today. Let’s make that unity permanent, and draw on it for the sake of our party, and our country.

Is President-Elect Obama Un-American?

Thank God we elected Michele Bachmann. Someone has to be brave enough to investigate the very serious question of whether the American President is sufficiently American. File this under “casualties of war.” While last night saw at least one culture-war Senator go down (Dole), keep Bachmann’s unfortunate repeat performance as a reminder that there’s still a lot of work ahead of us. Meanwhile, Al Franken still fights it out in recount-land, and Jim Martin may be in a runoff with the vile Saxby Chambliss.